News
Antifragility and tipping points
Žarko Kovač gave an online talk at the annual meeting of the Tipping points and abrupt changes In the Marine Ecosystem, a project of the European Space Agency.
On the 14th April 2026 during the hybrid meeting, which took place both at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the UK and online, the PHOTOCLIM principal investigator Žarko Kovač gave a presentation titled Antifragility and tipping points: Ideas on how noise connects to deterministic components of marine primary production. The talk was focused on the application of stochastic calculus, in particular Ito's lemma to model the effect of noise in sea surface temperature (SST) on primary production. We are currently working on analysing SST data from ERA5 reanalysis to quanitfy noise in the temperature record. Subsequently we plan to build a stochastic model of primary production driven by a stochastic differential equation for SST. This will provide us with the opportunity to quantify primary production fragility or antifragility with respect to SST both spatialy and temporally.
Presentation can be downloaded below.
